Infectious Disease Forecast For KSA / The Hajj

This is the forecast of selected disease entities issued by Ascel Bio LLC for KSA, published July 2012, to occur in October 2012.  

With reference to the 9/27/2012 post: the discussion regarding Jordan, this is Ascel Bio's output of the event signature of the London novel coronavirus.                                       

                                        London Novel Coronavirus Ascel Bio IDIS Probabilities:

52.7% <CAT3; 39.8% CAT 3; 6.42% CAT 4; 1.0% CAT 5

 

We are aware of the KSA air traffic indices.  The Hajj arrives on October 24th, a rapidly approaching global convergence of risk in the eyes of many public health officials given the recent discovery of novel coronavirus in KSA. 

Ascel Bio assesses it is unlikely this novel virus will pose a true threat and is likely an artifact of us having access to ever-better technology to isolate and characterize pathogens that have probably always been present at some given low level of baseline prevalence.  Recall that routine daily medicine in the ICU does not routinely run down the pathogenesis of each and every high morbidity / mortality case in most parts of the world.  In the US, we continue to "discover" new pathogens as a result of advancing diagnostic technology. 

James M. Wilson V, M.D.

Chief of Station
Ascel Bio Black Canyon Infectious Disease Forecast Station
Founder & Managing Partner
Ascel Bio LLC