Post-Sandy Infectious Disease Forecast [UPDATE 2]

We have received additional information this afternoon to warrant minor adjustments to the forecast and additional ground observations:

• As mentioned in the prior forecast, we assess there will be minimal medical infrastructure strain due specifically to infectious disease UNLESS mass groups of abandoned or sheltered-in-place elderly are not addressed by medical responders.  The surge of response today in Rockaway is a positive step in mitigation.  We have seen evidence of food safety issues emerging due to loss of power and refrigeration.  This issues are accentuated among the abandoned or sheltered-in-place elderly who are attempting to care for themselves without external support.

• Communication with physicians in New Jersey have revealed report of increased case counts of bronchitis and bacterial pneumonia without laboratory diagnostic evaluation to determine the specific pathogen.  These cases are influenza negative and are able to be dealt with at the outpatient level.  This is consistent with the original forecast.

• Deployed medical responders in Rockaway did not indicate significant diarrheal disease, consistent with the original forecast.

• To date, we have observed no report of significant medical response infrastructure strain due to unexpected infectious disease activity.

This forecast will be updated as conditions warrant.