On July 27, 2012, the Praecipio International infectious disease forecast team, using technology from Ascel Bio LLC, issued a forecast for cholera activity in Haiti. Most relevant was the comment,
It appears that in Artibonite, the peak weeks for transmission are Epidemiological Weeks 27 (first week of July) and 46 (second week of November), respectively.
We are still in the process of collecting all of the data for Artibonite, but we note a remarkable correlation in an area just north of the original forecast site in the Cap Haitien area:
At the time, we had used the Artibonite data as a proxy for the north. We are surprised to see how "tight" the forecast was temporally. Obviously, this is not a final assessment. But it is compelling nonetheless.
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